Transplant Models

The Epidemiology Research Group for Organ Transplantation is a research group focused on organ transplantation at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. Below are some of the decision models we have developed.

For more information, please visit our website,

Living Kidney Donor Risk Index (LKDPI)

This model predicts recipient risk of graft loss after living donor kidney transplantation based on donor characteristics, on the same scale as the KDPI ...

Massie AB, Leanza J, Fahmy LM, Chow EK et al. A Risk Index for Living Donor Kidney Transplantation. AJT 2016 (epub ahead of print)

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ESRD Risk Tool for Kidney Donor Candidates

This model is intended for low-risk adults considering living kidney donation in the United States. It provides an estimate of 15-year and lifetime incidence of end-stage renal disease...

Grams ME, Sang Y, Levey AS, Matsushita K, Ballew S, Chang AR et al. Kidney-Failure Risk Projection for the Living Kidney-Donor Candidate. NEJM 2015 (epub ahead of print)

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Infectious Risk Donors

When a patient with end stage renal disease (ESRD) on the waitlist for a kidney is offered an Infectious Risk Donor (IRD) kidney, they need to decide whether they will accept the IRD kidney and the associated infectious risk, or if they will decline it and continue to wait for the next available infectious-risk free kidney ...

Chow, E. K. H., Massie, A. B., Muzaale, A. D., Singer, A. L., Kucirka, L. M., Montgomery, R. A., ... & Segev, D. L. (2013). Identifying appropriate recipients for CDC infectious risk donor kidneys. American Journal of Transplantation, 13(5), 1227-1234.

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Transplant Candidacy for Patients 65+

This prediction model is intended for adults with ESRD on dialysis aged 65 and above; it provides the predicted probability of 3-year survival after kidney transplantation (KT). Patients with predicted 3-year post-KT survival in the top quintile are deemed "excellent" candidates ...

Grams, M. E., Kucirka, L. M., Hanrahan, C. F., Montgomery, R. A., Massie, A. B., & Segev, D. L. (2012). Candidacy for kidney transplantation of older adults. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 60(1), 1-7.

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Pediatric Transplant: Living or deceased donor first?

Most pediatric kidney transplant recipients live long enough to require retransplantation. The most beneficial timing for living donor transplantation in candidates with one living donor is not clear...

Van Arendonk, K. J., Chow, E. K., James, N. T., Orandi, B. J., Ellison, T. A., Smith, J. M., Colombani, P. M., & Segev, D. L. (2012). Choosing the Order of Deceased Donor and Living Donor Kidney Transplantation in Pediatric Recipients: A Markov Decision Process Model. Am J Transplant, 99(2):360-6.

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Postdonation Risk of ESRD in Living Kidney Donors

Risk estimation is critical for appropriate informed consent and varies substantially across living kidney donors.

Massie, Allan B., et al. "Quantifying Postdonation Risk of ESRD in Living Kidney Donors." Journal of the American Society of Nephrology (2017): ASN-2016101084.

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KDPI-EPTS Survival Benefit Estimator

This model predicts the survival benefit of kidney transplantation based on the combination of the offered kidney's KDPI and the candidate's EPTS.

Bae S, Massie AB, Thomas AG, Bahn G, Luo X, Jackson KR, et al. Who Can Tolerate a Marginal Kidney? Predicting Survival After Deceased-Donor Kidney Transplantation by Donor-Recipient Combination. Am J Transplant. 2019 Feb;19(2):425-433.

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